This should be the year for the Democratic Party.
I won’t say it’s the year for “Progressives,” because I don’t find much that is progressive in the Democratic Party establishment. Still, we take it where we can get it.
But, it should be the year – if they don’t fuck it up. And there seems to be nothing this Democratic Party leadership can’t fuck up. Seriously, there is real danger that they will. And that danger is Hillary Clinton.
In the interest of full disclosure, I caucused for Obama. He was not my first, or even second choice, but I far prefer him to Hillary. In fact, I don’t like Hillary at all.
I don’t know her personally, and she may be a hell of a lady. But to me she represents all that has gone wrong with the Democratic Party these last thirty years. I also think she represents the final nail in the Democratic Party’s coffin, and can snatch defeat from the jaws of almost certain victory this fall. She is the bomb, and not in a good way.
A Hillary nomination will be a disaster for the Party in several different ways:
1. She will be the number one fundraiser for the Republicans.
2. She will suppress the Democratic vote.
3. She will only get the nomination by means of an ugly convention fight (and, even if it’s just close, it will seem this way).
4. She is, and has always been, basically, a moderate Republican – which is the last thing we need.
One, Hillary is one of the most divisive figures in American politics. And it’s not totally her fault. The Republican base has an irrational hatred of her. This is an election where the Republican base may well stay home, unless Hillary runs. If she does, they will vote, donate, doorbell and man the phones. Fundamentalist churches will work overtime to beat Hillary, when they would otherwise snooze through a McCain candidacy.
The top one-percenters did well when Bill was in office. Then, they helped smear both him and Hillary to go over the top, and take a chance at getting it all with “W.” They basically have. They don’t want the gravy train to end, and fear that a Democrat will have to ratchet back some of the insane greed that has been legislated. They fear McCain will too, but just a little less than any Dem. They are smart enough to realize that McCain won’t stand a chance in Hell against Obama, and hang onto their cash. But if it’s Hillary, they will see the blood in the water if she swims into the general election, and pour in the bucks to beat her.
Two, Hillary as nominee will keep the liberal wing of the Democratic Party from maintaining its current high energy level. She represents the party insider wing of the Democratic Party. She is the old way of doing things, the antithesis of “change,” the buzz-word that has the base so worked up. And the young voters who have been mobilized for Obama? Forget it. If she is the nominee, they won’t even bother. They will stay home, as will, perhaps, many African American voters, having had the allure of America’s first black president snatched from their grasp. The numbers of voters in the primaries and caucuses have been vastly in favor of the Democrats, Double the Republican voters in many states. This is a huge advantage in the general election IF the excitement and energy stays high. It won’t with Hillary.
Three, it won’t stay high with Hillary because she will have to pull out all the stops to beat Obama. She will have to twist arms and pull strings, and get down in the mud. She will really piss off many people who are excited by Obama, but really don’t like her (like me, and I am not alone). And, if she has to win with Super Delegates, and they go against the pledged delegates chosen by popular vote, it will be like setting a bomb off in the big tent. Many Democratic voters will see this as a back-room betrayal by party insiders, and stomp off in a huff. Conservative Dems who get pissed will cross to McCain, liberal Dems will write in Obama, or not vote, or…can you say Nadar? Even a belated Bloomberg independent run would siphon off many disgruntled Democratic voters.
The thing is, we Democratic voters are petulant. We are sick of the failures of the leadership to fight for us. We see Obama as at least a little break from the DLC establishment that has capitulated to corporate greed and Republican bullying for the last thirty years. If he wins outright, most Hillary supporters will follow him to November. He is not that different from her policy-wise, and there is enough excitement around him to make most forget ol’ what’s-her-name. However, if he is brought down at the convention by the Super Delegates in the proverbial “smoke filled room,” many of his supporters will not forgive. They will take their votes and go home and NOT support Hillary in the general election. They are already saying so on Air America. This will make Hillary vs. McCain a nail-biter, in a year when it shouldn’t even be close!
Four, it will be a nail-biter because there is not much difference between Hillary and McCain. I see Clinton as a moderate Republican. Hillary legislates about where Arlen Spectre is on the Liberal-Conservative scale. Her big legislative initiatives during the last six years? A flag burning bill, and a fight against violent video games. Gee, thanks for stepping up to the crucial issues of the Democratic base there, Hillary!
She is pro-war, pro-eavesdropping (anti-Fourth Amendment), pro-establishment, pro-corporate domination…hell, McCain may be more of a populist than she. At least he was in the old days. True, he has had to sell his soul to Dick Cheney (Satan) to get the nomination, but over his years in the Senate he can show a pedigree for the common man to rival Clinton’s. It will be a moderate Republican against a newly-conservative Republican in the general election. Great job Democratic Party!
And even if she can pull it off, and win the Presidency, she will triangulate! She will cave in on demands for, say, Supreme Court justices. She won’t appoint arch-conservatives, but she won’t fight for the ones we deserve. She will appoint “moderates” to replace the liberals that will be retiring, because she has never fought for the left. She has instead entrenched herself in the center-right. Progressives will quickly lose both hope and interest.
The liberal party supporters deserve better. We might get it with Obama, we won’t with Clinton. I think that the Democratic voters are realizing this. I believe that Obama will have a significant pledged delegate lead going into the convention. However, should Super Delegates tip the scales, or the Florida or Michigan messes spoil an Obama victory, the Democratic party will be torn in half at exactly the wrong time. It will be like a bomb going off in Denver, at the convention. The Hillary bomb.
